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( 2016) state that we are now able to give reliable answers to the question of whether anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability of occurrence of some classes of individual extreme weather events.
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There has also been a lively debate in the literature on how to define and answer attribution questions. ( 2016), and Otto ( 2017) give an overview of the state of the art in event attribution at the time of their publications. The report also gives an overview of operational and/or rapid attribution systems. Chapter 3 of the NAS report is dedicated to methods of event attribution, including observational analyses, model analyses, and multi-method studies. The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) has written a “state-of-the-science” assessment report ( National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2016), discussing the current state of extreme weather attribution science. Recently there have been many overview studies on extreme event attribution. It can also be used as a standard methodology in academic event attributions. This paper aims to be a starting point for this. A protocol on the design and framework for operational analyses is needed such that analyses will be comparable. In a few cases attribution studies have been carried out in near real time by research teams. For these event types, the general methodology can now be standardized, requiring case-by-case modification only for specific aspects such as model evaluation. Some types of analyses, notably the attribution of temperature and large-scale precipitation extremes, have generally been providing consistent results across methods and cases and have been carried out so frequently that they may be operationalized.
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Various groups are now actively performing thorough analyses and have produced a multitude of case studies (e.g. The field of extreme event attribution aims to answer these questions and is witnessing a wealth of new methods and approaches being developed. In the immediate aftermath of an extreme weather or climate event, questions are often raised about the role of climate change, whether and to what extent the event can be attributed to climate change, and whether the event is a harbinger of what is to come. It is hoped that our protocol will be useful in designing future event attribution studies and as a starting point of a protocol for an operational attribution service. It starts from the choice of which events to analyse and proceeds with the event definition, observational analysis, model evaluation, multi-model multi-method attribution, hazard synthesis, vulnerability and exposure analysis and ends with the communication procedures. In this paper we detail the protocol that was developed by the World Weather Attribution group over the course of the last 4 years and about two dozen rapid and slow attribution studies covering warm, cold, wet, dry, and stormy extremes. In doing these analyses, it has become apparent that the attribution itself is only one step of an extended process that leads from the observation of an extreme event to a successfully communicated attribution statement.
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Many “event attribution” studies have now been performed, a sizeable fraction even within a few weeks of the event, to increase the usefulness of the results. Over the last few years, methods have been developed to answer questions on the effect of global warming on recent extreme events.